Campaigns drown in vanity metrics — rally crowds, social likes, yard-sign counts. None of them predict a win. These five actually do.
1. Name ID versus your opponent. If voters don't know you, nothing else matters yet. 2. Ballot support after a neutral description. That's your real starting line. 3. The size of your persuadable universe. How many votes are actually in play? 4. Cash on hand versus burn rate. Can you finish the race? 5. Voter-contact rate. How many real conversations per week?
Track these five honestly and you'll always know where you stand — even when the yard signs are telling you a prettier story.